FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY AND RISK SENSITIVITY OF A REGIONALLY OWNED COCOA PROCESSING ENTERPRISE UNDER RECONSTRUCTED FINANCIAL DATA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70248/jmie.v4i1.4553Abstract
The financial sustainability of regional agro-processing enterprises depends on investment feasibility and reliable financial information for managerial control. This study evaluates the financial feasibility and risk sensitivity of Cho-Sik, a cocoa-processing enterprise owned by the Regional Government of Sikka, Indonesia. A quantitative evaluative design was applied using Net Present Value (NPV), Payback Period (PP), sensitivity and scenario analysis, and five-year financial projections. Cho-Sik did not maintain a complete accounting information system or comprehensive formal financial statements. The financial dataset was therefore reconstructed from available investment, administrative, operational, production, sales, and asset records. The reconstruction was validated through field observation, semi-structured interviews, source triangulation, documentary reconciliation, and internal-consistency checks. At the 10% analytical hurdle rate, the base-case appraisal indicates that the investment is financially feasible, with a positive NPV and capital recovery within the five-year evaluation horizon. However, feasibility remains conditional on operating performance. Revenue is the dominant sensitivity factor: a 15% decline in revenue makes NPV negative, whereas a 15% increase in cash operating costs alone does not. This asymmetry highlights the importance of revenue stabilization, market development, disciplined cost monitoring, and stronger financial record-keeping. The novelty of this study lies in proposing a managerial diagnostic framework for regional agro-industrial enterprises that links investment appraisal with risk sensitivity and ongoing financial monitoring. The framework contributes to stronger financial governance and evidence-based decision-making, with particular relevance to small- and medium-scale regional government-owned enterprises (BUMDs) operating with incomplete accounting information.e
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